Uneducated Guesses (ebook)

Argumento de Uneducated Guesses (ebook)

"An absolutely absorbing book. Feels like a must for politicians, reformers, educators--math educators in particular."--Cut the Knot Insights

"Tired of yelling at the TV when he saw news accounts of policy changes based on flawed evidence, Wainer uses his book to present evidence to help assess 11 such trends, including the entrance-exam-optional policies in many colleges and teacher evaluations based on student performance. . . . Wainer applies more than statistical evidence to education policy; he also brings common sense to bear."--Maureen Downey, Atlanta Journal-Constitution

"Renowned statistician and research scientist Howard Wainer applies the tools of his trade to answer a question that affects every American: What is wrong with our education system? . . . Wainer pokes holes in almost every aspect of conventional education policy--college rankings, admissions, aptitude tests--including a scathing critique of No Child Left Behind."--Bruce Walsh, Metro

"I would recommend this book to anyone with an interest in testing, especially for college admissions or advanced placement. . . . Wainer is a gifted writer with a notable talent for analyzing and presenting data."--Bill Satzer, MAA Reviews

"The book provides a model for the development of rational public education policies, something that America needs desperately."--Robert A. Bligh, Education Review

"Educators and education policymakers interested in helping students realize their potential will benefit from reading Wainer's book because the implications reach beyond postsecondary school instruction. Teachers and administrators at all levels can follow the logic of Wainer's ideas as they seek to use evidenced-based pedagogical strategies in their classrooms."--Denise G. Brassell, Mathematics Teacher

"With its timely reminder that high stakes decisions often rely on anecdotes, laden with emotion, and that 'the plural of anecdote is not data,' Uneducated Guesses ought to be read by anyone who is concerned about the weaknesses (and wrong-headed assumptions) in current educational policies."--Glenn C. Altschuler, Tulsa World

Winner of the 2014 AERA Division D Significant Contribution to Educational Measurement and Research Methodology Award, American Educational Research Association

"[Wainer's] overall message rings clear and true for much more than assessment: Policy that is formed without full analysis of the breadth of data available on a topic is policy that will fail."--Laurent Rigal, Education Gadfly

"Uneducated Guesses is an insider's look at using test scores to make high stakes decisions in education. In this rigorous, refreshing rebuttal of conventional thinking, Wainer argues that in the world of education policy, we all would be better served by examining the evidence that demonstrates that our ideas will improve the systems we're trying to transform."--Dennis Van Roekel, president, National Education Association

"With his usual verve, flair, and disdain for pious nonsense, Howard Wainer offers a refreshingly fact-based view of a complex problem: the use of tests in educational selection and evaluation. A must-read for anyone involved in these issues and a fun read for anyone who wishes to be educated and entertained at the same time."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate in Economics, Princeton University

"Howard Wainer's account of a selection of important scientific issues arising from educational testing is lucid, wise, and entertaining, and should be required reading for anyone interested in improving educational policy."--Stephen M. Stigler, University of Chicago

"Uneducated Guesses is a must-read for enthusiasts of evidence-based decision making and for those who make public policy decisions without consulting the evidence. The former will be sobered by a real and random world that may not match their theoretical models. The latter will be surprised to learn from past research the power and limits of public policy decisions. Wainer lays it all out in engaging and accessible prose and numbers."--Arthur E. Wise, president emeritus, National Council for Accreditation of Teacher Education

"Uneducated Guesses is a compelling, entertaining, and provocative book that elucidates some of the subtle and important issues of educational policy. In typical Wainer fashion, the graphics nicely complement and illuminate the text and tables, and I really enjoyed the variety of examples used in the book. I learned a lot about calibration, examinee choice, the history of testing, triathlon optimization, and the health of the professional football betting industry."--Nicholas Horton, Smith College

"It is always a pleasure to read Wainer's work, and this book was certainly no exception. His carefully chosen and extremely interesting examples, his conversational tone, and his great sense of humor lead to a work that is hard to put down. Uneducated Guesses is a fabulous book, and one of great significance."--Karl W. Broman, University of Wisconsin-Madison

"[T]hought-provoking. . . . He questions the anecdotal and statistical evidence that underpins many of today's education policies and reform efforts."--Library Journal

"In sum, this book is a wonderful compilation of concrete examples from educational testing that amply illustrate the importance of evidence-based policy-making. I recommend it as an interesting, entertaining, and most worthwhile read."--TCR Books0Preface xi
Introduction 1
Chapter 1: O n the Value of Entrance Exams: What Happens When the SAT Is Made Optional? 8
Chapter 2: O n Substituting Achievement Tests for Aptitude Tests in College Admissions 20
Chapter 3: O n Rigid Decision Rules for Scholarships 29
Chapter 4: The Aptitude-Achievement Connection: Using an Aptitude Test to Aid in Allocating Educational Resources 32
Chapter 5: C omparing the Incomparable: On the Importance of Big Assumptions and Scant Evidence 57
Chapter 6: O n Examinee Choice in Educational Testing 73
Chapter 7: What If Choice Is Part of the Test? 103
Chapter 8: A Little Ignorance Is a Dangerous Thing: How Statistics Rescued a Damsel in Distress 110
Chapter 9: A ssessing Teachers from Student Scores: On the Practicality of Value-Added Models 120
Chapter 10: S hopping for Colleges When What We Know Ain't 139
Chapter 11: O f CAT s and Claims: The First Step toward Wisdom 147
Epilogue 156
References 159
Index 165