The Butterfly Defect (ebook)

Argumento de The Butterfly Defect (ebook)

The Butterfly Defect addresses the widening gap between the new systemic risks generated by globalization and their effective management. It shows how the dynamics of turbo-charged globalization has the potential and power to destabilize our societies. Drawing on the latest insights from a wide variety of disciplines, Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan provide practical guidance for how governments, businesses, and individuals can better manage globalization and risk.

Goldin and Mariathasan demonstrate that systemic risk issues are now endemic everywherein supply chains, pandemics, infrastructure, ecology and climate change, economics, and politics. Unless we address these concerns, they will lead to greater protectionism, xenophobia, nationalism, and, inevitably, deglobalization, rising inequality, conflict, and slower growth.

The Butterfly Defect shows that mitigating uncertainty and risk in an interconnected world is an essential task for our future.

"[The authors demonstrate] that the increasing interconnectedness of the world makes the world's economics, infrastructure, health and social conditions behave [as] an interconnected meteorological system. The next big crisis will be of unexpected origin."--Professor Rober J. Shiller, Wall Street Journal

Finalist for the 2015 Estoril Global Issues Distinguished Book Prize

"The arguments put forward are cohesive and coherent with well-constructed logical chapters, good, well thought out examples and jargon free language. . . . Upon reflection of this book, I was left with a clear and defined picture of how systemic risk effects systems and how globalization inherently increases these risks."--Jason Paul Stansbie, Leonardo Reviews

"Globalization is the girl with the curl: when it is good, it is very, very good, but when it is bad it is awful. It generates a world at the same time both robust yet fragile--economically, financially, environmentally, and socially. The Butterfly Defect explains why this opportunity-cum-threat calls for a radical new approach to the setting of public policy--an approach which to be successful needs to be every bit as hyperconnected as the world it is operating in."--Andy Haldane, Bank of England

"The Butterfly Defect is remarkable. Never has globalization, in its dramatically increased interconnectedness, been looked at so completely and clearly. For policymakers in particular, the book's analysis of the systemic fragility associated with globalized interconnectedness and the need for systemic resilience are of utmost interest."--Jean-Claude Trichet, former president of the European Central Bank and current chairman and CEO of the Group of Thirty

"A vital and timely book, The Butterfly Defect is the first to show why systemic risk threatens us all and how it can be managed. It is a must-read for anyone concerned about our rapidly integrating peoples and businesses, and the future of our hyperconnected world."--Pascal Lamy, former director-general of the WTO

"The book is a magnificent work of scholarship that truly gets readers engaged and curious about where globalization will lead us."--Alex Verkhivker, LSE Review of Books

"This fascinating and useful book provides interesting examples and connections across a range of fields and areas of study."--Danny Quah, London School of Economics and Political Science

"This interdisciplinary and far-reaching book brings together diverse research to highlight the increase in systemic risk that accompanies the interconnectedness associated with globalization. No other book has summarized these issues for the general public, and The Butterfly Defect will benefit a broad audience."--David Colander, Middlebury College

"Filled with striking examples, this ambitious book offers a new perspective on globalization--in particular, the need for policy responses that recognize the challenges presented by the globalization of many domains, from health to finance. The message about the need for coordination to overcome systemic problems will strike a chord with readers."--Diane Coyle, author of The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters

Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School and professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford. Mike Mariathasan is assistant professor of finance at KU Leuven.

"This book covers many different sectors and points out that globalization brings opportunities as well as threats; readers from diverse professional and academic backgrounds will gain insights."--Library Journal

"The book is a magnificent work of scholarship that truly gets readers engaged and curious about where globalization will lead us."--Alex Verkhivker, LSE Review of Books

"In this context of uncertainty about the future of globalization, the book is a very timely intervention, as it focuses exactly on the risks created by the process of globalization itself. The authors have formidable expertise."--Dariusz Wójcik, Journal of Economic Geography

"Although the authors' prose is clear and unburdened by jargon, the nature of the topic means this is not a light read. But it will reward the persistent. The issues they raise, and the interconnections they identify, are such that specialists will come away with a deeper understanding of the risks involved in each of the specific fields they cover. . . . To paraphrase John F. Kennedy, this book should be widely read not because it is easy, but because it is hard."--Survival Global Politics and Strategy0List of Boxes, Illustrations, and Tables ix
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
Introduction 1
1 Globalization and Risk in the Twenty-First Century 9
Globalization and Integration 10
Global Connectivity and Complex Systems 13
Globalization and the Changing Nature of Risk 23
Globalization: A Double-Edged Sword 30
The Way Forward 33
2 The Financial Sector 36
with Co-Pierre Georg and Tiffany Vogel
The Financial Crisis of 2007/2008 37
Financial Globalization in the Twenty-First Century 39
Complexity and Systemic Risk 54
Global Financial Governance 60
Lessons for the Financial Sector 64
3 Supply Chain Risks 70
Global Supply Chains 72
Supply Chain Risk 79
From Management of Risk to Risk Management 90
Lessons for Supply Chain Management 95
4 Infrastructure Risks 100
Transportation 101
Energy 105
The Internet 112
Lessons for Global Infrastructure 120
5 Ecological Risks 123
The Nature of Environmental Risk 124
Risks from the Environment 129
Risks to the Environment 133
Can Globalization Be Good for the Environment? 138
The Export of Pollution 139
Lessons for Managing Environmental Risk 141
6 Pandemics and Health Risks 144
Pandemic Risk 145
Globalization and Health Risks 147
Case Studies 150
Noninfectious Diseases 159
Global Cooperation and Disease Control 160
Lessons from Pandemic Management 164
7 Inequality and Social Risks 168
Global Integration and Inequality 169
The Channels of Inequality 180
The Risks of Inequality 181
Lessons for Challenging Global Inequalities 195
8 Managing Systemic Risk 198
Moving Forward, Not Backward 200
Confronting a New Challenge? 202
The Need to Reform Global Governance 206
Why Reform Has Been So Sluggish 209
Lessons for Global Policy Reform 212
Managing Systemic Risk 219
Notes 221
References 257
Index 285