Predicting the Presidency (ebook)

Argumento de Predicting the Presidency (ebook)

"George Edwards is one of the shrewdest observers of American politics. His latest book is a must-read for scholars, political journalists, and any citizen who wants to understand the modern presidency."--Ryan Lizza, Washington correspondent for the New Yorker and political commentator for CNN

"As the nation gears up for another presidential election, we can expect the candidates running for office and the media that cover them to stoke our yearnings for transformative change. Not so fast, George Edwards warns. Presidential leadership rarely involves remaking the polity. Rather, it demands that presidents effectively (and soberly) identify and then exploit political opportunities where they lay. In this timely book, Edwards offers a primer for how to measure the next president’s chances."--William G. Howell, author of Thinking about the Presidency: The Primacy of Power

"Edwards explains what determines whether a president fails or succeeds in pursuing his agenda. In so doing, he once again substantially redefines what we know about the presidency and American democracy. Another seminal Edwards contribution!"--James N. Druckman, Northwestern University

"A superb and original work that all scholars of the presidency will have to engage with. Future presidents would be well advised to pay attention to it as well. No one in the last fifty years has done more than Edwards to clarify the reach, and the limits, of presidential leadership."--Kenneth R. Mayer, author of With the Stroke of a Pen: Executive Orders and Presidential Power

"Edwards's book is a major contribution to the literature on the presidency. Extremely well written and carefully and extensively researched, Predicting the Presidency will generate considerable public and scholarly debate as we complete another election cycle and inaugurate a new president."--Stephen J. Wayne, Georgetown University

"Edwards does an excellent job of arguing for the timeless nature of the institution of the presidency as it struggles to overcome its structural constraints, caught up as it is in the web of separate institutions sharing powers. His readable style masks a huge erudition."--Andrew Rudalevige, Bowdoin College0List of Figures ix
List of Tables xi
Preface xiii
Chapter 1 Asking the Right Questions 1
PART I PREDICTING THE PRESIDENCY
Chapter 2 Strategic Position with the Public 15
Chapter 3 Strategic Position with Congress 34
Chapter 4 Different Questions, Different Answers 53
PART II EXPLOITING OPPORTUNITIES
Chapter 5 Reinforcing Opinion 77
Chapter 6 Exploiting Existing Opinion 107
Chapter 7 Cross-Pressuring
Opinion 138
Chapter 8 Reaching the Base 160
Chapter 9 Exploiting Partisans in Congress 183
PART III CONCLUSION
Chapter 10 Leadership, Opportunity, and Strategic Assessments 203
Notes 215
Index 255