Plight of the Fortune Tellers (ebook)

Argumento de Plight of the Fortune Tellers (ebook)

"A fascinating read. . . . Rebonato writes in an engaging prose that is free of mathematics, yet intellectually rigorous. He provides a top-level view of risk management, founded on real-world situations."--Philippe Jorion, Journal of Economic Literature

"Plight of the Fortune Tellers is the best non-specialist introduction to quantitative financial risk management I have found."--Danny Reviews

"This book should be on the reading list of experienced risk managers in the financial services industry as well as students who are contemplating a career in the field. It provides a thoughtful qualitative companion to more equation-laden texts on modern risk management."--Moshe A. Milevsky, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance

"In his new book, Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Rebonato shows... why Merrill Lynch and Citigroup shareholders are right to be concerned. Nowhere have I read a better account of how a conscientious, intellectually disciplined market risk manager approaches his work in today's complex world. Well known to Risk readers as a master of interest rate modeling, Rebonato has written an accessible, non-technical book."--Nicholas Dunbar, Risk

"This is an enjoyable, approachable book that may be read by anyone with an analytical mind. It is free of mathematics, yet it makes no concessions when it comes to explaining the complexities of a problem...I found a flowing prose that was a pleasure to read...[P]light of the Fortune Tellers is a great wake-up call for the industry. It deserves to be widely read since we all would like to be able to rely on the stability of the financial sector. It would be nice to get the risk management right."--Jessica James, Physics World

"[Plight of the Fortune Tellers] was written to appeal to a wide audience. Stylistically, Rebonato is an engaging writer who uses analogies and interesting examples...I'm confident you'll enjoy this book and that, after reading it, you will join in the dialog that Rebonato has started."--Garp Risk Review

"In Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Rebonato analyzes and offers solutions to problems related to quantitative risk management strategies and the value-at-risk (VAR) methodology currently used by financial managers. Through stories, examples, theory, and practical methods, he first provides a critical review of the current state of affairs in investment risk management. Then, he proposes how we should 'revisit our ideas about probability in financial risk management' and 'put decision making back at center stage.' In Plight of the Fortune Tellers contains valuable insights into the development of VAR methodology and problems associated with its use in the present financial management arena. . . . In Plight of the Fortune Tellers is a book recommended for practitioners currently involved in quantitative methods and for students of investments and risk management at the graduate school level."--James Jackson, CFA Digest

"Riccardo Rebonato is a better fortuneteller than the risk analysts he writes about. He has read the palms of the 'quants' who revel in developing ever more complex risk models and found that their 'real life' line is rather short. But apart from confirming the prejudices of a financial journalist with no statistical training, is this book worth reading? The answer is yes. It is timely; the subject--financial risk management--matters hugely; it provides a relatively accessible guide to annoyingly influential statistical theories; and it makes you think."--Financial World online

"[Plight of the Fortune Tellers] is timely. . . . [I]t provides a relatively accessible guide to annoyingly influential statistical theories, and it makes you think."--Financial World

"While others build straw men only to tear them down, Rebonato stands on the intellectual foundations of his profession to both articulate its weaknesses and suggest a plan for material advancement. This he does with respect, precision, and humor, making Plight of the Fortune Tellers a welcome oasis in the desert of dry risk management texts."--David Shimko, Towers Perrin

"A fascinating book that very comprehensibly covers the evolution of risk management. Very interesting perspective, accessible to all--from experienced market practitioners to interested beginners."--Jonathan P. Moulds, Bank of America

"Riccardo Rebonato provides a refreshingly clear and skeptical analysis of the limitations of quantitative risk management, the naïveté of too many decimal places, and the sloppy ways in which people talk about probability."--Emanuel Derman, Columbia University, head of risk at Prisma Capital Partners, and author of My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance

"This is a unique book: a treatise on risk management with no equations! Since equations are frequently substituted for thought in this area, the book is long overdue. Riccardo Rebonato is one of the leading technical writers in this area, and now brings his experience to bear on the elephant in the room of risk management: do the equations do what their advocates claim? All will benefit from Rebonato's insights, including his proposals for how to reform risk management."--Ian Cooper, London Business School

"In this elegant and controversial book, the author discusses and rejects the current paradigm of quantitative risk management. Rather than the traditional frequentist methods, he advocates using probabilities-as-degree-of-belief and probabilities-as-revealed-by-actions as better approaches to decision making under financial uncertainty. General readers as well as risk-management professionals, students, and academics will find this book exciting and illuminating."--Alexander Lipton, managing director, global head of credit analytics, Merrill Lynch International

"An extremely timely book that will no doubt cause a stir. It is a reality check that carries great authority because of the author's experience and position in the industry and his knowledge of both the business end and the technical side. This is a well-written, entertaining book that will generate a lot of debate in the financial industry about the future of quantitative risk management."--Alexander J. McNeil, coauthor of Quantitative Risk Management

"Very engaging and in places quite provocative. This book will be a wake-up call for the financial risk management industry. Certainly a good read."--Lane Hughston, King's College London

"Remember that feeling of bewilderment after your first few weeks in your first job after university? That wrenching realization that, while the theories that you had laboured to understand may have been illuminating, they were too abstract to be applied to the real world? Reading Riccardo Rebonato's intriguing book brings those memories flooding back. For while Rebonato well understands, approves of, and writes about quantitative probability and risk theory, his day job involves actually managing financial risk. Hence he appreciates the limits both of theory and of applying it to real world situations. . . . There is considerably more meat in this wise, practical, yet unpretentious book than can be summarized in a short review."--John Llewellyn, The Business Economist

"This is an interesting book for managers or regulators whose responsibilities include oversight of finance."--Wan Lixin, Shanghai Daily

"Plight of the Fortune Tellers is insightful and entertaining. It provides a non-technical yet sophisticated introduction to the perils of modern risk management and it has the potential to lead us in a better direction. Don't miss it."--Lisa R. Goldberg, Journal of Investment Management0Preface to the Paperback Edition ix
Preface xxxi
Acknowledgments xlix
Chapter 1: Why This Book Matters 1
Chapter 2: Thinking about Risk 22
Chapter 3: Thinking about Probabilities 40
Chapter 4: Making Choices 67
Chapter 5: What Is Risk Management For? 107
Chapter 6: VaR & Co: How It All Started 117
Chapter 7: Looking Beneath the Surface: Hidden Problems 139
Chapter 8: Which Type of Probability Matters in Risk Management? 182
Chapter 9: The Promise of Economic Capital 199
Chapter 10: What Can We Do Instead? 223
Endnotes 259
Index 267