Painful Choices (ebook)

Argumento de Painful Choices (ebook)

"David Welch is to be commended for developing an ambitious theory that recognizes that humans, not factors, make decisions, and that they are affected by history and psychology."--Max Paul Friedman, Political Science Quarterly

"Well written and accessible to non-specialists. . . . Welch's skillful use of historical materials should please historians in particular. . . . Welch has made a substantial contribution to international relations theory with this book."--Barbara Farnham, International History Review

"This ambitious and clear-headed book advances the cause of eclectic theorizing. A compelling theory of foreign policy change is supported by highly readable plausibility probes. David Welch's impeccable scholarship has succeeded where most of ours has failed us--joining analytical parsimony with policy relevance."--Peter J. Katzenstein, Walter S. Carpenter, Jr. Professor of International Studies, Cornell University

"In the tradition of Hans Morgenthau, David Welch has produced a highly original theory that will also do yeoman's work as an introductory text in foreign policy courses. His book is psychologically informed, eminently plausible, appropriately hedged, probed fairly in interesting cases, and extremely well written. Painful Choices is delightful reading."--Richard Ned Lebow, James O. Freedman Presidential Professor of Government, Dartmouth College

"David Welch has written an outstanding account of foreign policy change. His main claim is that leaders will change foreign policy most when they perceive existing policy as likely to lead to painful losses; they are not motivated to change policy simply because they might be able to make minor gains. He develops three main hypotheses to operationalise this claim, and 'test drives' these against a set of structured, focused case studies. He finds that his theory is substantially confirmed by the case studies, and he sees this as vindication of general theory. This is a fascinating book, with an excellent integration between theory and practice; it will become required reading for anyone interested in explaining foreign policy change or in international theory. Illuminating and theoretically convincing, this is that rare thing-a theoretically sophisticated book that says something new, and does so by the use of detailed case studies."--Steve Smith, Vice-Chancellor and Professor of International Relations, University of Exeter

"Exceptionally well written, and mercifully free of jargon, this book is a major contribution to the field. By placing policy change at the core of the theory of foreign policy he seeks to develop, Welch deviates sharply from recent scholarship--and this is precisely the strength of his book. Not only will political scientists welcome the book but so too will historians, both because of the excellent case studies and because Welch is adept at using historical materials without distorting them to 'prove' some abstract theory."--Ole R. Holsti, George V. Allen Professor of Political Science, Duke University

"This very well written book addresses an area of international relations and foreign policy research that has received little attention in the field. The scholarship, both in the theoretical and empirical sections, is excellent; the research behind its case studies is first rate. Welch's writing is lively, and he effectively articulates complex ideas in easily digestible ways. No other work brings together institutional, psychological, and loss/gains-frame analysis like this book."--Scott Silverstone, Associate Professor of Political Science, United States Military Academy, West Point

Winner of the 2008 Best Book Award, International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association

"Welch's theory is original and merits further testing against other cases of foreign policy change. Political scientists and foreign policy practitioners alike would benefit from reading this lucidly written book."--Guy Ziv, International Relations and Political Economy0List of Figures and Tables ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction 1
CHAPTER 1: Surprise, Anticipation, and Theory 10
The Case for a Decision-Based Theory of Behavior 18
The Case for a Theory of Foreign Policy Change 23
CHAPTER 2: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change 30
Building Blocks 31
A Loss-Aversion Theory of Foreign Policy Change 45
Devils in the Details 51
CHAPTER 3: Useless Islands Disputes 72
Las Islas Malvinas 73
The Northern Territories 95
Crucial Differences 113
CHAPTER 4: American Boys in an Asian War 117
Background 118
Turning Points 129
The Johnson Escalation 134
Nixinger and the Endgame 147
How Do the Hypotheses Fare? 160
CHAPTER 5: Free Trade with the United States: Two Funerals and a Wedding 168
Overview and Background 169
Laurier and the Reciprocity Agreement of 1911 177
King and the Reciprocity Nonagreement of 1948 185
Mulroney and the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, 1988 193
Analysis 206
CHAPTER 6: Conclusion 216
Works Cited 233
Index 265