Knowing the Adversary (ebook)

Argumento de Knowing the Adversary (ebook)

"Knowing the Adversary is a great success: it is thoroughly researched, well written, convincing in its conclusions, and rich in policy implications of the highest security importance."--Mark L. Haas, Political Science Quarterly

Co-Winner of the 2016 DPLST Book Prize, Diplomatic Studies Section of the International Studies Association
Winner, 2014 Edgar S. Furniss Book Award, Mershon Center for International Security Studies

"How do political leaders and intelligence organizations make inferences about adversary intentions? Yarhi-Milo makes a major contribution to the study of this critical question by developing a new theory of threat perception and testing it in three important historical cases. With its extraordinarily detailed historical research, extensive coverage of primary sources, compelling evidence, and balanced interpretations, Knowing the Adversary is indispensable reading for conflict theorists, intelligence analysts, and diplomatic historians."--Jack S. Levy, Rutgers University

"Threat perception is a central topic for international politics, but is remarkably understudied. Yarhi-Milo's fascinating and important book is a huge step forward. Testing theories based on rational choice, organization theory, and psychology, and using original research on British perceptions of Nazi Germany and American views of the USSR, she shows that decision makers and intelligence analysts looked at different indicators and that the attention paid by both groups was highly selective."--Robert Jervis, author of Perception and Misperception in International Politics

"Knowing the Adversary tackles a central question in international security and reaches nonobvious conclusions with wide implications. The quality of the empirical work is outstanding. I can think of few recent qualitative studies that are in its league."--William C. Wohlforth, coauthor of World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy

"Knowing the Adversary makes a significant contribution to the literature on how states assess others' intentions. Surprisingly little research has focused as directly and fully on this important question as Yarhi-Milo does here. She looks carefully at a huge amount of evidence. This is an important book."--Charles L. Glaser, author of Rational Theory of International Politics: The Logic of Competition and Cooperation

"[Knowing the Adversary] enriches the debate over the best way for policymakers and analysts to filter the vast pools of information they gather about rivals."--Foreign Affairs

"[A] solid scholarly book….The major contribution of the book is the systematic focus on a notoriously amorphous subject--how world leaders and intelligence organizations draw inferences about their adversaries’ long-term intentions."--Choice0Acknowledgments ix
Introduction 1
Chapter 1 Theories of Intentions and the Problem of Attention 14
Chapter 2 I ndicators of Nazi Germany?s Intentions and the Coming of World War II, 1934-39 44
Chapter 3 British Decision Makers? Perceptions of Nazi Germany?s Intentions 58
Chapter 4 The British Intelligence Community?s Assessments of Nazi Germany?s Intentions 102
Chapter 5 The Carter Era and the Collapse of Détente, 1977-80 114
Chapter 6 US Decision Makers? Perceptions of Soviet Intentions: The Collapse of Détente 126
Chapter 7 The US Intelligence Community?s Assessments of Soviet Intentions: The Collapse of Détente 158
Chapter 8 I ndicators of Soviet Intentions and the End of the Cold War, 1985-88 178
Chapter 9 US Decision Makers? Perceptions of Soviet Intentions: The End of the Cold War 192
Chapter 10 The US Intelligence Community?s Assessments of Soviet Intentions: The End of the Cold War 224
Chapter 11 S ummary and Implications 241
Appendix: Summary of Hypotheses 255
Notes 259
Index 345