How Terrorism Ends (ebook)

Argumento de How Terrorism Ends (ebook)

"In a new book with the blunt title How Terrorism Ends, Cronin . . . has filled that gap by collecting and analyzing as much information as possible about the demise of past terrorist campaigns and organizations. Eschewing sociological or psychological speculation about why groups opt to use terrorism, she focuses instead on the strategic consequences of their actions. The result is a refreshingly sober treatment of the subject."--Justin Vogt, The National

"While the causes of terrorism have long been subject to avid research, Audrey Kurth Cronin's cogent and thoughtful text responds to the curious dearth of works attending to its ends. This is clearly a timely project, coming as policy-makers and academics are increasingly seeking alternative ways to think about and practice terrorism. . . . [The] case-studies are easily the most gripping and readable sections of the text. Cronin never flattens for the sake of parsimonious argumentation, rather allowing the specificity of each case to enlighten us for the continuities and differences at work. As a consequence, they are rich in fascinating detail and her derived conclusions are sophisticated. . . . Such insights should rightly guarantee the text a wide readership. . . . The timeliness, clarity and simplicity of the project contained in How Terrorism Ends should commend it to readers of all descriptions. Above all, Cronin's sensible and well-argued call for 'smarter'(pg. 193) strategies for dealing with terrorism today is one that deserves to be widely heard."--Nicholas Michelsen, International Affairs

"How Terrorism Ends is comprehensive, historical, and academically rigorous. Terror campaigns might seem endless, but as Cronin has so accurately depicted, terror campaigns always end and usually not in the favor of the terrorists organization. I highly recommend the book to anyone with an interest in understanding terrorist organizations and the political and military means to defeat them."--Ken Miller, Military Review

"[A] broad variety of approaches benefit from Cronin's work. It is hard to imagine a thoughtful reader who won't be provoked by something in this book. It is still harder to imagine one who won't fine his or her work enriched by it."--Thomas Maddux, H-Diplo ISSF

"A truly superb book that addresses the actual resolution of terrorist movements. It has a clarity and definitiveness that is rare in the literature and, moreover, will be of special interest to any official or analyst endeavoring to cope with this threatening and sinister problem. Its careful and rigorous message is one of hope."--Philip Bobbitt, author of Terror and Consent: The Wars for the Twenty-first Century

"Thoughtful books on terrorism are sadly a rarity. How Terrorism Ends not only meets that test but also tackles a neglected aspect of the subject. I cannot think of another book that addresses the ending of terrorist campaigns in the systematic way or with the depth that Audrey Cronin does."--Adrian Guelke, author of Terrorism and Global Disorder

"This is a thoughtful, sensible, and well-researched analysis of an important but understudied subject with immense policy relevance. It presents a systematic comparative framework that places al-Qaeda in historical perspective."--Martha Crenshaw, author of Terrorism in Context

"This is a superb book dealing with an important and timely topic. It is impressive in its research, very well written, and full of insights. A must-read."--Brian Michael Jenkins, author of Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

One of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2010

"The fact that Cronin's book raises more questions than it answers may ultimately be a positive, because she aims to provide a wide ranging analysis of a subject in its early phases that can serve as a springboard to future studies. How Terrorism Ends is, therefore, a worthwhile book for both academics and policymakers. If a reader agrees with some points and finds others lacking, but ultimately considers how to grapple with terrorism from a new perspective, Cronin will have succeeded in her aims."--Peter J. P. Krause, Journal of Strategic Studies

"For all the scholarly work that has been done during the decade on terrorism and counter-terrorism, remarkably little has been done to compare the ways in which terrorist campaigns come to a conclusion. Audrey Kurth Cronin fills this gap admirably in her book How Terrorism Ends [by] using intelligent analysis and a wide array of historical examples."--Colin Dueck, Claremont Review of Books

"The volume is beyond doubt a valuable addition to the literature on terrorism. In fact, it is one of the more important works to appear in recent years. The analyses and insights are valuable, and the conclusions that she derives are compelling."--James M. Lutz, European Legacy

"Cronin makes a significant contribution to the scholarly literature on terrorism and counterterrorism. While other scholars have written extensively on the motivations, methods, and means of terrorism, Cronin is the first to look seriously and historically at how terrorist campaigns come to an end."--Choice

"Cronin has written an important book on how terrorism ends. Her analysis is equally illuminating for its insights into why people engage in terrorism in the first place."--Max Abrahms, Middle East Quarterly

"This is an impeccable text, offering some hope to those who fear a terrorist cataclysm, ways to ameliorate situations that foster or encourage terrorist activity, and a clear strategy for governments to pursue."--Rabbi Dr Charles H Middleburgh, Charles Middleburgh Blog

"I applaud the outstanding analysis in this book. By meticulously selecting, recording, and examining terrorism, Cronin has provided an excellent foundation for the planners and implementers of counterterrorism."--Terence Parker, Michigan War Studies Review

"By writing How Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin . . . has provided a service to everyone with an interest in counterterrorism by providing much-needed perspective. . . . Cronin's analysis is textured, challenging and insightful. And, as with all good analyses, the assertions at the heart of the argument prompt further lines of inquiry for scholars and practitioners to explore. . . . How Terrorism Ends shines a light on the key issues that relate to an al-Qa'eda threat that is becoming increasingly diffuse, diverse and devolved--and, even with the benefit of Cronin's perspective, difficult to predict."--Christopher Mackmurdo, Global Policy

"Serious work on this subject has begun to emerge with Audrey Kurth Cronin's splendid recent study, How Terrorism Ends, providing a strong example."--Richard English, International Affairs0Acknowledgments xi
Abbreviations xv

Introduction 1
The Evolution of Terrorism as a Strategic Threat 3
A Word about Scope and Terms 6
The Conceptual Framework 7
Case Selection 8
Overview of Chapters 9

Chapter One: Decapitation: Catching or Killing the Leader 14
What Decapitation Means 16
The Arrest of Top Leaders 17
Abimael Guzmán and Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) 18
Abdullah Öcalan and the Kurdistan Workers? Party 20
Mickey McKevitt and the Real Irish Republican Army 22
Shoko Asahara and Aum Shinrikyo 23
Assassination or "Targeted Killing" 24
The Philippines? Abu Sayyaf 27
Russia and Chechen Leaders 28
Israel's "Targeted Killings" 29
How Decapitation Ends Terrorism 31

Chapter Two: Negotiations: Transition toward a Legitimate Political Process 35
Why Governments Negotiate 36
Why Groups Negotiate 39
Case Studies of Negotiations 42
The Northern Ireland Peace Process 42
Analysis of the Agreement 47
The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process 48
Terrorism and the Talks 55
The LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or Tamil Tigers) 57
Analysis of the Failure 61
Promising and Unpromising Circumstances for Negotiations 62
Stalemate 63
Strong Leadership 64
Sponsors 65
Suicide Campaigns 66
Splintering 67
Spoilers 69
Setting and Story 70
How Negotiations End Terrorism 71

Chapter Three: Success: Achieving the Objective 73
What Does "Success" Mean? 74
Survival 75
Achievement of Objectives 77
Perpetuating Terrorism: Tactical or "Process" Goals 77
Ending Terrorism: Strategic or "Outcome" Goals 80
Cases of Success 82
Irgun Zvai Le'umi (Irgun or IZL) 82
The African National Congress and Umkhonto 85
Other Notable Cases 89
How Success Ends Terrorism 91
Conclusions 92

Chapter Four: Failure: Imploding, Provoking a Backlash, or Becoming Marginalized 94
Implosion: Mistakes, Burnout, and Collapse 95
Failure to Pass the Cause to the Next Generation 95
Generational Patterns: Left-Wing Groups in the 1970s 97
Generational Patterns: Right-Wing Groups in the 1990s 98
Infighting and Fractionalization 100
Loss of Operational Control 102
Accepting an Exit 103
Marginalization: Diminishing Popular Support 104
The Ideology Becomes Irrelevant 105
Loss of Contact with "the People" 107
Targeting Errors and Backlash 108
How Failure Ends Terrorism 110

Chapter Five: Repression: Crushing Terrorism with Force 115
Analyzing the Strategies of Terrorism 117
Case Studies of Repression 122
Russia and Narodnaya Volya 123
Peru and Sendero Luminoso 125
Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers? Party 128
Uruguay and the Tupamaros 129
Russia and Chechnya 131
Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood, 1928-1966 137
How Repression Ends Terrorism 141

Chapter Six: Reorientation: Transitioning to Another Modus Operandi 146
Criminality and Terrorism 148
Colombia and the FARC 149
The Philippines and Abu Sayyaf 152
Insurgency and Terrorism 153
Algeria and the GIA 155
Terrorism as a Catalyst for Major War 157
India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri Separatist Groups 159
Outdated Paradigms, Practical Implications 162
How War Ends Terrorism 166

Chapter Seven: How Al-Qaeda Ends: The Relevance and Irrelevance of History 167
Is Al-Qaeda Unique? 168
Resilient Structure 169
Methods of Radicalization and Recruitment 171
Means of Support 174
Means of Communication 175
The Relevance and Irrelevance of History for Al-Qaeda:
Applying the Framework 177
Decapitation: Capturing or Killing the Leaders 177
Negotiations: Talking to Al-Qaeda or Its Associates 179
Success: Achieving Al-Qaeda's Objectives 182
Failure through Implosion 183
Failure through Diminishment of Popular Support 187
Repression: Crushing Al-Qaeda with Force 190
Reorientation: Transitioning to Other Means 191
Al-Qaeda's Decline and Demise 193

Conclusion 197
Understanding How Terrorism Ends 201
Appendix: Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Campaigns 207
Notes 223
Selected Bibliography 283
Index 297