Generative Social Science (ebook)

Argumento de Generative Social Science (ebook)

"Epstein's generative manifesto is essential reading for anyone seriously interested in explaining social life."--Michael Macy, American Journal of Sociology

"Joshua Epstein has been a leader in articulating and pursuing the agent-based generative approach to social science. This collection of his papers exemplifies both the depth of his methodological positions and the fruitfulness of agent-based analysis. The power of simple rules of local social interaction in generating explanations of complex social behavior is beautifully illustrated, most notably in the study of population fluctuations in Anasazi societies. I am convinced that agent-based approaches to economics will become a major tool."--Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University

"Generative Social Science is an outstanding example of an exciting paradigm shift in the analysis of dynamic social systems. Joshua Epstein is a virtuoso at using simple models to reveal surprising insights about the dynamics of a wide range of phenomena such as epidemics, status hierarchies, civil violence, and even the timing of retirement."--Robert Axelrod, University of Michigan

"Agent-based computational modeling represents an important new interdisciplinary approach to doing social science. Joshua Epstein, a pioneer of this approach, provides in Generative Social Science both a spirited defense of agent-based modeling and a dazzling display of the method's power."--John Duffy, University of Pittsburgh

"Epstein is a central and outstandingly creative figure in the emerging social science literature developed through agent-based simulation studies. Epstein offers an undogmatic, balanced account of his project and methods and shows in what specific ways they can open up whole broad questions that are simply unapproachable with traditional methods. The chapters address a stunningly wide range of problems, and each chapter has a distinctive and stimulating contribution to make."--Duncan K. Foley, New School for Social Research

"Generative Social Science is an important book that should be read by all who have a serious interest in the social sciences."--Peter Hedström, University of Oxford

"The contents are important, and until now have appeared in scattered and sometimes obscure places. The new commentary that the author has added ties these together in a coherent whole illustrating this new approach to the social sciences."--Brian Skyrms, University of California, Irvine

"This book is leading what is likely to be an increasingly important line of thought. The central argument and its illustrative applications present conceptual and methodological innovations that clearly have enormous potential. The writing is concise, accurate, balanced, and entertaining. Readers will be broadened, challenged, provoked, and inspired."--John Steinbruner, University of Maryland

"Epstein's Generative Social Science . . . is to be regarded as a success. It is a highly professional book, comestible also by non-experts without giving up scientific rigour. Probably because the author is fond of its subject matter, and manages to transfer his enthusiasm into the reader, the book may be read all at once, as a narrative. . . . In sum, there are good reasons to expect that the community of simulators will welcome this book with enthusiasm, and that other supporters will be recruited."--Rosaria Conte, JASSS

"It should be noted that having all these contributions in one place is not only useful but pleasing...Epstein's book is a concise and well articulated defense of agent-based modeling. Generative Social Science is essential reading for anyone seriously interested in the foundations and the practice of agent-based modeling."--Daniel Diermeier, Science0Introduction xi

Prelude to Chapter 1: The Generativist Manifesto 1
Chapter 1: Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science by Joshua M. Epstein 4

Prelude to Chapter 2: Confession of a Wandering Bark 47
Chapter 2: Remarks on the Foundations of Agent-Based Generative Social Science by Joshua M. Epstein 50

Prelude to Chapter 3: Equilibrium, Explanation, and Gauss's Tombstone 72
Chapter 3: Non-Explanatory Equilibria: An Extremely Simple Game with (Mostly) Unattainable Fixed Points by Joshua M. Epstein and Ross A. Hammond 75
Appendix to Chapter 3: Large Effect of a Subtle Rule Change 86

Prelude to Chapters 4-6: Generating Civilizations: The 1050 Project and the Artificial Anasazi Model 88
Chapter 4: Understanding Anasazi Culture Change through Agent-Based Modeling Jeffrey S. Dean, George J. Gumerman, Joshua M. Epstein, Robert L. Axtell, Alan C. Swedlund, Miles T. Parker, and Stephen McCarroll 90

Chapter 5: Population Growth and Collapse in a Multiagent Model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley by Robert L. Axtell, Joshua M. Epstein, Jeffrey S. Dean, George J. Gumerman, Alan C. Swedlund, Jason Harburger, Shubha Chakravarty, Ross Hammond, Jon Parker, and Miles Parker 117

Chapter 6: The Evolution of Social Behavior in the Prehistoric American Southwest by George J. Gumerman, Alan C. Swedlund, Jeffrey S. Dean, and Joshua M. Epstein 130

Prelude to Chapter 7: Generating Patterns in the Timing of Retirement 144
Chapter 7: Coordination in Transient Social Networks: An Agent-Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement by Robert L. Axtell and Joshua M. Epstein 146

Prelude to Chapter 8: Generating Classes without Conquest 175
Chapter 8: The Emergence of Classes in a Multi-Agent Bargaining Model by Robert L. Axtell, Joshua M. Epstein, and H. Peyton Young 177

Prelude to Chapter 9: Generating Zones of Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma Game 196
Chapter 9: Zones of Cooperation in Demographic Prisoner's Dilemma by Joshua M. Epstein 199
Appendix to Chapter 9: Generating Norm Maps in the Demographic Coordination Game 222

Prelude to Chapter 10: Generating Thoughtless Conformity to Norms 225
Chapter 10: Learning to be Thoughtless: Social Norms and Individual Computation by Joshua M. Epstein 228

Prelude to Chapter 11: Generating Patterns of Spontaneous Civil Violence 245
Chapter 11: Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein 247

Prelude to Chapter 12: Generating Epidemic Dynamics 271
Chapter 12: Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein, Derek A.T. Cummings, Shubha Chakravarty, Ramesh M. Singha, and Donald S. Burke 277

Prelude to Chapter 13: Generating Optimal Organizations 307
Chapter 13: Growing Adaptive Organizations: An Agent-Based Computational Approach by Joshua M. Epstein 309

Coda 345
Index 349